Global Warming Agnosticism

Charles Krauthammer has written an excellent article about global warming that reflects my thoughts on the subject. He starts it with these two paragraphs:



I'm not a global warming believer. I'm not a global warming denier. I'm a global warming agnostic who believes instinctively that it can't be very good to pump lots of CO2into the atmosphere but is equally convinced that those who presume to know exactly where that leads are talking through their hats.



Predictions of catastrophe depend on models. Models depend on assumptions about complex planetary systems -- from ocean currents to cloud formation -- that no one fully understands. Which is why the models are inherently flawed and forever changing. The doomsday scenarios posit a cascade of events, each with a certain probability. The multiple improbability of their simultaneous occurrence renders all such predictions entirely speculative.



Global warming is probably happening in some places to some degree, but whether it is long term or man-made, and what its ultimate effects will be, are impossible to tell. Anybody who has worked with models can tell you that they can be extremely useful, but are incredibly prone to produce results desired by the person running the model.

It is to our advantage to reduce carbon emissions, and every other "unnatural" activity, but in doing so we must weigh the costs and benefits. Those who present dire pictures of what will happen without strict controls on carbon emissions have not come close to making a defensible argument for their position.



Mr. Krauthammer's entire column can be found at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/29/AR2008052903266.html

Interstate Power Line Moves Ahead

Allegheny Power is developing an interstate electric transmission line, the Trans-Allegheny Interstate Line (TrAIL), across northern West Virginia to carry electricity from West Virginia to the east coast. The project will create more infrastructure for transmission of West Virginia-generated power. While there has been some opposition to the power line, as there always is, the forces fighting the agreement that was reached with the West Virginia Public Utilities Staff and the PSC Consumer Advocate are now smaller, and the project appears poised to go through. You can read about the results of the negotiations before the PSC in an article by Ken Ward at http://wvgazette.com/News/Business/200805300580

If we're to centralize power generation at places where environmental controls can be more effectively imposed, such as power plants that centrally produce electricity for plug-in cars, instead of having individual internal combustion engines in each car, then more power lines are going to be necessary.

Storm Water Exemptions for Oil and Gas Operations Rejected

The Ninth Circuit recently rejected an interpretation of the Energy Policy Act that exempted certain oil and gas operations from storm water controls. You can read a blog about the decision at http://eartotheground.typepad.com/weblog/2008/05/exempting-oil-and-gas-operations-from-stormwater-rules-is-overruled.html.

This decision could have significant effect on oil and gas operations in West Virginia, which are subject to best management practices but not storm water permitting.

EPA Proposes New Air Limits for Coal Preparation Plants

EPA has proposed new air emission limits for coal preparation plants, which are the places that raw coal is taken to be made suitable for use and sale. The changes primarily involve limitations on particulate matter (PM). The following provides information about the rule and the contact information for filing comments.

SUMMARY: Pursuant to section 111(b)(1)(B) of the Clean Air Act (CAA), EPA has reviewed the emissions limits in the standards of performance for coal preparation plants which were promulgated January 15, 1976. This action presents the results of EPA's review and proposes amendments to limits for coal preparation plants consistent with those results. Specifically, we are proposing to tighten and add additional particulate matter (PM) emissions limits for sources constructed after April 28, 2008. In addition, we are proposing to clarify the procedures used to measure emissions from coal preparation plants and add new monitoring requirements for sources constructed after April 28, 2008.DATES: Comments. Comments must be received on or before June 12, 2008. If anyone contacts EPA by May 8, 2008 requesting to speak at a public hearing, EPA will hold a public hearing on May 13, 2008. Under the Paperwork Reduction Act, comments on the information collection provisions must be received by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on or before May 28, 2008.ADDRESSES: Comments. Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2008-0260, by one of the following methods: http://www.regulations.gov. Follow the on-line instructions for submitting comments. E-mail: a-and-r-docket@epa.gov.

You can find the full proposal at Federal Register: April 28, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 82) Page 22901-22913

Free Climate Change Webcasts Being Offered by EPA

For those of you who are concerned about climate change, or want to know what EPA plans to do about its effect on water supplies and wetlands, EPA is offering two free webcasts on May 8 and May 13. See the descriptions below.


Free May 8 Webcast on EPA?s Draft Water Climate Change Strategy On Thursday, May 8, EPA will be hosting a free webcast from 2:30 to 4:30 pm EDT to discuss EPA's Draft National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate Change. The agency recently distributed this draft strategy and is now seeking comment until May 27, 2008. The draft strategy represents an initial effort by EPA's National Water Program to identify potential impacts of climate change for clean water and drinking water programs, and to define actions both to adapt water programs to these impacts as well as to mitigate the release of greenhouse gases. The free webcast will highlight some of the key impacts on water resources and water programs, and key actions we are proposing. If you are interested in participating in this webcast or want a copy of the draft strategy go to http://www.epa.gov/water/climatechange/ .

Free May 13th Webcast on Wetlands and Climate Change On Tuesday, May 13th, 2008, a free Watershed Academy Webcast, "Wetlands and Climate Change," will highlight the unique challenges that wetland habitats face including rising sea levels and variable temperature and precipitation patterns. Expert instructors will discuss the issue from diverse perspectives reflecting the multifaceted approach needed to address the challenges of climate change. EPA's Watershed Academy sponsors free, monthly Webcasts for watershed practitioners from around the globe.
The Webcast will feature Dr. Virginia Burkett, Chief Scientist, Global Change Research at the U.S. Geological Survey; Peter Slovinsky, Coastal Geologist, Maine Geological Survey; Jim Powell, Water Quality Standards Section Manager, Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation; and David VanLuven, Hudson River Estuary Landscape Director, The Nature Conservancy-Eastern NY Chapter. To register please visit: http://www.epa.gov/watershedwebcasts.

High Gas Prices? Increase Oil Production in the US

Paul Samuelson is one of the brightest minds in economics, and he writes in a coherent, engaging manner. He believes we are deluding ourselves if we complain about high gas prices, which are due to the tight oil market, and yet refuse to allow drilling for oil and gas in significant portions of the United States. See his column from a week ago at http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/opinion/other/orl-syn-sam0501,0,6344504.story

DEP Proposes Changes to Water Quality Standards

The DEP Water Quality Standards office unveiled a revised proposal for determining which waters of the state should be preserved as drinking water supplies. It would designate all streams in the state as water supplies (designated as Category A in the standards), and provide a way for NPDES permit writers to determine where that use should not apply. Currently, to show the Category A use should not apply, one must go through a very involved procedure that includes getting approval from the Legislature and from EPA. The new procedure would expedite that process, but only for small streams, or streams with modifications on them, such as culverts. Larger streams would still be assumed to be potable water supplies, even if there is no water supply intake. The result is that dischargers can be stuck with lower permit limits, and higher costs, in order to protect water users that are not even present.

The change proposed by the DEP is positive, at least for dischargers to the smallest streams. However, removing the use will still be cumbersome on larger streams. The DEP would be better served by foregoing the designation of all streams as public water supplies, and protecting those streams that actually serve as water supplies.

An article on the meeting can be found at http://www.wvgazette.com/News/200804300675

Bamboo as Environmentally Sustainable Crop

An article on bamboo cultivation that was reprinted from the Seattle Times presents some interesting information about opportunities for the cultivation of non-running, non-aggressive bamboo. It will never replace hardwoods domination of the Eastern forests, but it may be an interesting plant to throw into the horticultural mix in West Virginia. See the article at http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/pacificnw/2004360712_pacificpbamboo20.html

One mistake the writer made was to assume that hardwoods, once cut, do not regenerate. In fact, clear cut hardwood forests in the East begin to regenerate from shoots and seeds almost immediately.