Understanding (And Not Overestimating) Risk

Two stories to report on today that illuminate one another.  The first is an article from the Orange County (CA) Register about a report done by University of California at Irvine public health and social ecology professor Oladele Ogunseitan about the dangers posed by LED bulbs, such as those used on Christmas trees.  The article says that

Although immediate risk from a broken bulb is low, Ogunseitan still advises consumers to wear a mask and gloves and use a special broom when sweeping up the pieces. Emergency crews also should use protective equipment when dealing with car crashes and broken traffic lights, and should consider the material hazardous waste, Ogunseitan said.

I question whether most people are going to keep a mask, gloves and a dedicated broom for sweeping up Christmas tree lights.  Either people are going to be exposed to real danger from broken tree lights, or there really isn't a great danger there.

Which brings us to the second posting, one from EPA which is a notice about a new study of risk analysis.  Many of us are poor estimators of risk - we are more scared of dying in a plane crash than a traffic accident, even though we know the risk of the former is much less than the risk of an auto fatality.  (For anyone interested in understanding risk assessment, the Harvard Center for Risk Assessment is a great place to start.) Here's hoping that EPA is able to develop good information about the real risks posed by chemicals in our environment, to rebut the popular myth that every chemical produced by man is an uncontrollable toxin.

EPA Hosts Conference on Advancing the Next Generation of Risk Assessment

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is announcing a two-day conference to discuss the Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment. NexGen is a program that aims to create an inexpensive, faster system for chemical risk assessment by incorporating new knowledge about molecular biology. EPA scientists are using molecular biology, the study of how cells function, to help them interpret the risk to Americans’ health from exposure to chemicals in our air, water and soils. Through NexGen, EPA is collaborating with federal and state agencies to help people understand risks posed by chemicals in our environment so they can make more informed decisions about their health.

The goals of the conference are to engage the public and key stakeholders in the early stages of the program, share information, receive feedback and help direct the next phases of NexGen. Members of the public may participate in the conference, which will consist of presentations followed by group breakout sessions. Space is limited, and reservations will be accepted on a first-come, first-serve basis.
WHO: Dr. Paul Anastas, assistant administrator of EPA’s Office of Research and Development

Dr. Linda Birnbaum, director of National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)

WHAT: Advancing the Next Generation of Risk Assessment: Public Dialogue Conference

WHEN: Tuesday, February 15, 8 a.m. - 5:30 p.m. and Wednesday, February 16, 9 a.m. - 1 p.m.

WHERE: Embassy Suites Convention Center; 900 10th Street N.W., Washington, D.Cm.

More information on how to register for the conference: http://epa.nexgen.icfi.com

More information on NexGen: http://www.epa.gov/risk/nexgen