Peak Oil Is Often Predicted, But Hasn't Arrived

I remember when the natural gas crisis hit in the late 1970s and we stayed home from school one winter for an extended period because natural gas was being saved for "critical users" such as hospitals and manufacturing.  Gas supplies were too low, there weren't any large reserves remaining, and we were told that we should get used to living in the cold.

Then they deregulated natural gas prices, and an amazing thing happened.  As prices rose, gas exploration and drilling increased. As they increased, new reserves were found that could be profitably exploited.  Recently we've seen this trend continue, as a method has developed for accessing the huge amounts of natural gas, and some petroleum, located in tight shale formations.

Daniel Yergin writes on this phenomenon in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, explaining why peak oil never seems to arrive. There have been predictions since the late 1800's that we would run out of oil, and they've always been wrong. As he remarks:

 Things don't stand still in the energy industry. With the passage of time, unconventional sources of oil, in all their variety, become a familiar part of the world's petroleum supply. They help to explain why the plateau continues to recede into the horizon—and why, on a global view, Hubbert's Peak is still not in sight.